The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers will kick off their 2025 NBA playoff journey at home against the Miami Heat, the eighth seed, in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round. Cleveland finished the regular season strong, securing the first seed with an impressive 64-18 record, outperforming even the Boston Celtics. Miami entered the playoffs after winning two play-in tournament games against Chicago and Atlanta. Notably, the Heat are the first tenth seed in either conference to reach the NBA playoffs since the play-in format was introduced in the 2020-21 season.
The game is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET in Cleveland`s Rocket Arena. Bookmakers have установлены Cavaliers as 12.5-point favorites, and the over/under for the total score is set at 215.5 points. It`s recommended to consult predictions from reliable models before making any bets on this Heat vs. Cavaliers matchup.
Statistical models, which simulate games thousands of times, have a strong track record in NBA betting predictions, showing significant profit over recent seasons. These models are currently on a successful run and could offer valuable insights for bettors.
Here are some key predictions for the Cavaliers vs. Heat game:
Heat (+12.5) Spread Pick
Miami`s achievement as the first tenth seed to make the playoffs, along with winning two play-in road games, is remarkable. Guard Tyler Herro`s outstanding performance, including 30 points in the win against Atlanta, highlights Miami`s potential. The model suggests Cleveland will win by approximately nine points, indicating that the Heat covering a +12.5 spread is a favorable bet.
Over 214.5 Total Points
Despite Miami`s overall offensive struggles during the season, their recent offensive improvement might be underestimated. They are up against a Cleveland team known for its high-scoring offense and efficiency. Historically, games between these teams tend to be high-scoring, with the over hitting in most of their recent matchups. The prediction model also suggests that the total points will likely exceed 214.5.
Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 Points
While Herro has been a scoring leader for Miami recently, Bam Adebayo, who averaged over 18 points in the regular season, is expected to exceed his points total for this game. His scoring average was slightly lower in the play-in games, but he consistently scored above this mark at the end of the regular season. The model predicts Adebayo to score around 18.6 points in Game 1, making the over 16.5 points bet appealing.
Jasper Hawthorne