With the NBA offseason now officially underway following the draft, the landscape for team building has fundamentally shifted. Traditional free agency, set to begin soon, is no longer the primary avenue for acquiring star talent. The prevailing trend sees prominent players signing extensions with their current teams, later leveraging these contracts to force trades to desired destinations when they wish to move.
Teams have adapted to this, moving away from simply accumulating vast cap space for potential free agents who rarely become available. As a result, the Brooklyn Nets stand out as the sole team with significant max cap space this summer. This means we shouldn`t anticipate major free agent signings dominating the headlines; instead, prepare for considerable activity in the mid-level market.
However, this shift doesn`t preclude significant roster changes. Major moves are expected, but they will predominantly occur through trades rather than conventional free agency. Let`s delve into ten bold predictions for the NBA offseason.
1. LeBron James Trade Talk Escalates
Following LeBron James` decision to opt into his $52.6 million player option for the 2025-26 season with the Lakers, his agent, Rich Paul, has indicated James is closely monitoring the team`s offseason moves. With potentially only one year left to contend for a fifth championship, James` immediate goals may now diverge from the Lakers` long-term vision, which appears to be building towards a future featuring players like Luka Dončić.
Currently, the Lakers may not offer James the `realistic` championship opportunity his agent mentioned. They still need a starting-caliber center, seem hesitant to part with future draft capital, and could lose key players. If the coming week is quiet for the Lakers, expect trade speculation around James to intensify. While a trade of this magnitude is inherently complex and unlikely, the volume of rumors could become substantial. Where there`s significant smoke, the possibility of fire, however slim, shouldn`t be entirely dismissed.
2. Knicks Trade Mikal Bridges
Regardless of the destination, the prediction is that the New York Knicks will trade Mikal Bridges. It`s believed the Knicks are reluctant to offer him the $156 million extension he`s eligible for. To avoid the risk of losing him for nothing in free agency next summer, the Knicks are likely to move Bridges this offseason.
The Knicks have a recent history of trading players they were unwilling to give large extensions to and didn`t want reaching free agency, including Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley, and Obi Toppin. Bridges appears to be next in line under these circumstances. While he performed well for the Knicks last season, and trading him would be difficult given the substantial package surrendered to acquire him just last summer, it`s crucial not to compound a previous mistake. The concept of sunk costs applies here; the Knicks won`t recover the five first-round picks traded for Bridges, but if they now feel they overpaid, it should strengthen their resolve against repeating that by offering an extension they don`t value.
3. Kings Execute a Big-Name Trade
It`s uncertain who will be involved – perhaps DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, or a combination – but the Sacramento Kings are actively seeking a significant trade this offseason and are expected to make one. Whether it will be a successful move is another question, given the Kings` history. They are reportedly in dire need of a point guard, which is ironic considering they passed on Luka Dončić and have drafted De`Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, both capable guards.
Nonetheless, the Kings will make a move. Rumors have linked DeRozan to teams like the Mavericks and Heat. While it`s improbable they`d acquire a player like Jaylen Brown by offering a massive package of picks, the Kings fit the profile of a team that might try. Something significant is anticipated from Sacramento.
4. Warriors Reunite with an Old Friend
Here`s the prediction: the Golden State Warriors will explore trading Jonathan Kuminga in a sign-and-trade deal to acquire a impactful player. Derrick White is a logical target, but the Celtics are reportedly demanding an extremely high price, possibly comparable to the five first-round picks the Knicks paid for Mikal Bridges or Orlando`s four picks for Desmond Bane.
White`s value in a championship context might justify such a price, and the Warriors could potentially meet it with a Kuminga-centric package. However, it`s more likely they won`t. The two most probable outcomes for Kuminga this summer are either the Warriors keeping him (possibly trading him later) or completing a less dramatic sign-and-trade. The latter seems more likely.
This less splashy move could involve the Miami Heat, bringing Andrew Wiggins back to Golden State. Wiggins was a vital contributor to the Warriors` 2022 championship run and is well-suited and willing to play the role Kuminga reportedly resists. While White would be a blockbuster acquisition, a smaller move like reacquiring Wiggins is more probable and would still provide Golden State with a legitimate third scoring option and another strong defender.
5. Pistons Land a Major Mid-Level Player
Detroit is well-positioned to be a significant player in the “mid-level madness” expected during this free agency period. They have access to the full Mid-Level Exception and are rumored to be interested in players like Santi Aldama or Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Both players would significantly improve the already promising Pistons team – Aldama providing much-needed stretch big capability, and Alexander-Walker offering top-tier 3-and-D wing skills, particularly on defense.
Regardless of who it is, Detroit is predicted to add a player this offseason via the mid-level market who will make a meaningful impact and help the team realistically compete for a conference finals berth next season.
6. Spurs Adopt the OKC Model of Patience
The San Antonio Spurs are often mentioned in potential blockbuster trade scenarios due to their wealth of talented young players/prospects, abundant draft capital, and the theoretical opportunity to accelerate their timeline around Victor Wembanyama. Acquiring players like Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo (if he becomes available) would fit this mold, as would pursuing Jaylen Brown, who also makes sense in San Antonio.
However, the prediction is that the Spurs will ultimately follow the path of the Oklahoma City Thunder, prioritizing patience over a massive swing that could jeopardize their ability to build properly around Wembanyama for the next decade-plus. San Antonio is expected to retain its valuable draft assets and allow players like 2024-25 Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and 2025 No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper to develop at a natural pace, avoiding pushing them into roles too quickly. While the Spurs might make some smaller moves (perhaps trading Devin Vassell or Jeremy Sochan), nothing is expected to shake up the core. They will take incremental steps, aiming to compete for a playoff spot behind Wembanyama and De`Aaron Fox next season. Their championship window is expected to open organically, with the team armed with enough cost-controlled talent via future picks to keep that window open, potentially in perpetuity.
7. Jaylen Brown Remains with the Celtics
The Celtics` recent trades of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, coupled with Jayson Tatum`s potential absence for all of next season, have led some to speculate about a complete teardown. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White have been widely discussed as potential trade candidates. However, a step back is needed here. While Boston might not be a true contender next season, the Eastern Conference environment should be considered. A core featuring Brown, White, and potentially Anfernee Simons (discussed below) is still formidable, and Tatum`s absence is temporary. Opting for a total reset seems hasty, especially given the difficulty of replacing a duo like Brown and Tatum.
In fact, the Celtics could benefit from a gap year. They have reached the conference finals three times and the NBA Finals twice in the last four seasons. Tatum and White also participated in the Olympics, accumulating significant wear and tear from deep postseason runs. Allowing these key players a season to rest and recover before returning refreshed for the 2026-27 season, when both Tatum and Brown will still be under 30, is the more measured approach. This measured play is what Boston is predicted to choose.
8. Anfernee Simons Does Not Remain with the Celtics
The move the Celtics are expected to make involves trading Anfernee Simons, who was acquired in the deal that sent Jrue Holiday to Portland. Simons is set to earn $27.7 million this season. With the Celtics focused on getting under the luxury tax threshold, reports indicate they are exploring rerouting Simons before he ever plays for the team.
Organizational priorities appear to be re-signing Al Horford and Luke Kornet and retaining Sam Hauser. To achieve this while remaining below the tax line, Simons` salary likely needs to be moved. Boston would need to receive less salary than they send out for Simons. Brooklyn could potentially absorb Simons, who is on an expiring contract, into their cap space in exchange for an asset, or act as a third team in a more complex trade structure. There have also been reports linking Simons to the Clippers.
9. Grizzlies Extend Jaren Jackson Jr.
The Memphis Grizzlies face the challenge of creating approximately $14 million in salary cap space. This is necessary to renegotiate the final year of Jaren Jackson Jr.`s current contract to a figure high enough that the subsequent 140% raise allows them to offer him a max extension starting next year. The prediction is they will find a way to achieve this. Potential moves include trading John Konchar, or waiving/stretching Cole Anthony`s contract, or perhaps incentivizing a team with cap space to take Anthony on by including a future draft pick. However they manage it, Memphis must complete this maneuver. They cannot allow JJJ to reach free agency next summer, especially given the Lakers could have max cap space and the allure of playing alongside Luka Doncic.
10. Jrue Holiday Stays in Portland
The moment Jrue Holiday was traded to the Portland Trail Blazers, many observers assumed he would be immediately flipped to another team, just as he was rerouted to Boston after being traded to Portland by Milwaukee two summers prior in the Damian Lillard deal.
However, the Trail Blazers are in a different situation this time. They believe their current roster is capable of competing for at least a play-in tournament spot, even within the challenging Western Conference, and Holiday`s presence would significantly boost that effort. The prediction is that the Blazers will begin the season with this goal, keeping Holiday on the roster. If their competitive aspirations fall short, they would then look to trade Holiday closer to the trade deadline, where a contender seeking to enhance their roster might be willing to pay a premium price for his services.
Jasper Hawthorne