Three first-round series in the NBA Playoffs will change locations on Friday. In games featuring the Celtics vs. Magic (+4.5) at 7 p.m. ET and Bucks vs. Pacers (+5.5) at 8 p.m. ET, the home teams are looking for their first victories. The Lakers vs. Timberwolves series (-3) at 9:30 p.m. ET is tied 1-1. The ability to make three-pointers is often crucial, making this statistic a common focus for player props. A popular prop line for Friday is Over/Under 1.5 made three-pointers for players like LeBron James, Kristaps Porzingez, Julius Randle, and Paolo Banchero. While the exact props vary, James` Under 1.5 threes offers a plus-money payout (+108), notable as he hasn`t made more than one three in his last four games.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game extensively and has proven profitable for top-rated picks. Data Scientist Stephen Oh analyzed these simulation results to identify the player props offering the best value for today`s games.
Jaylen Brown Over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (-120)
Jaylen Brown hit 5 of 7 three-pointers in Game 2, stepping up when Jayson Tatum missed the first playoff game of his career. With Tatum listed as doubtful again for Game 3, similar to Game 2 when he ultimately sat out, Brown is expected to continue contributing significantly. Brown has made multiple three-pointers in four of his last six games overall; the only recent miss was during a game with limited minutes in the regular season.
According to Data Scientist Stephen Oh, the projection model considers Tatum`s status, suggesting Brown`s projected output and the associated betting line will likely increase if Tatum is confirmed out. Furthermore, even if Tatum plays, a potential wrist injury could lead him to drive and pass more to teammates like Brown. Given the potential for odds to shift based on Tatum`s availability, placing this bet early is advisable.
Pascal Siakam Over 2.5 Assists (-125)
Since joining the Pacers in 2024, Pascal Siakam has faced Milwaukee 12 times, averaging 3.5 assists in those matchups, including tallying three assists in Game 2. Looking back to last year`s playoffs series against the Bucks, Siakam exceeded the 2.5 assist line in five out of seven games, with an average of 4.0 assists during that stretch.
Data Scientist Stephen Oh`s model projects Siakam to exceed 4 assists, estimating a high probability (around 70%) for the Over. The current -125 odds imply only a 56% chance, highlighting the value in this bet compared to other sportsbooks which often list this prop at -140 or higher.
Julius Randle Over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (-104)
Julius Randle has recently shown surprisingly strong three-point shooting form, despite not being traditionally known for it. He shot 45% (18 of 40) from deep in his final seven regular season games and has maintained that heat in the postseason, making 60% (6 of 10). Over this combined recent stretch, he`s averaged 2.7 made three-pointers, and the Over has hit in 9 of his last 14 total games.
The Lakers defense also presents a favorable matchup, having allowed opponents to make 41.6% of their three-point attempts over their last nine games, with opposing power forwards averaging 2.44 made three-pointers against Los Angeles this season. The -104 odds for this prop are available.
Data Scientist Stephen Oh notes that while the Timberwolves had a poor three-point shooting night recently, they are expected to return to their typical performance (near 40% team three-point shooting). Among Timberwolves players with a 1.5 or higher three-point line, Oh identifies Randle as offering the best value.
Jasper Hawthorne