Tyrese Haliburton`s memorable game-tying 3-pointer in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, complete with a tribute gesture to Reggie Miller, forced overtime and propelled the Pacers to a crucial road victory. The Pacers will look to replicate that opening game success when they face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Haliburton impressively scored 31 points in that win against the Knicks. Projections indicate that the star point guard is expected to exceed his total points line once again in the player props market for the Pacers vs. Thunder matchup.
Haliburton has surpassed the 20-point mark in each of his last two Game 1 performances during the 2025 NBA playoffs. His points over/under is currently set at 17.5 across various sports betting platforms. He is considered a popular selection for those building same-game parlays for Thunder vs. Pacers, potentially paired with Oklahoma City`s MVP-caliber guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has a proven track record of success on its top-rated NBA picks over several seasons. A Data Scientist involved with the model analyzed the simulation outcomes and supporting data to identify player props offering the most favorable value for today`s slate. As NBA odds can fluctuate, it is recommended to act promptly to secure maximum value.
Top Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 1 Prop Bets (odds subject to change):
- Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds (-118)
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (-110)
- Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115)
Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds (-118)
The model predicts Holmgren will exceed his individual totals for points, rebounds, and assists, but highlights the combined metric (PRA) line of 27.5 as offering the strongest value. While Holmgren has only gone over this combined line in a limited number of games this season (eight out of 26), this statistic is often influenced by reduced minutes in lopsided contests. The Thunder will have had more than a full week of rest since their last game on May 28, suggesting a significant workload for Holmgren in Game 1, even if the score differential widens. Holmgren cleared this PRA mark in three of the four Western Conference Finals games where he played at least 30 minutes.
Expert analysis suggests that given Indiana`s remarkable comeback capability demonstrated throughout the playoffs, Oklahoma City is unlikely to ease up even with a substantial lead, unless Indiana rests their key players. Holmgren has shown resilience, improving his performance after challenging matchups, specifically noting his rebounding increase following Game 1 against Denver`s frontcourt size and his scoring efficiency after a tough Game 3 encounter with Minnesota.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (-110)
Haliburton scored 21 points in 37 minutes during Indiana`s Game 6 victory against the Knicks to seal the series, surpassing this 17.5 point total in four of those six games. The 25-year-old guard averaged 18.6 points during the regular season, and the model forecasts him scoring 19.5 points in Thursday`s game, making the Over on 17.5 points an appealing proposition. Most sportsbooks list Haliburton`s Over 17.5 points with minus-money odds, indicating that the current line may offer value that could change.
He averaged 21 points per game against the Knicks and holds a postseason average of 18.8 points per game. Haliburton has shown increased aggression in shooting, attempting 14.6 field goals per game in the playoffs compared to 13.8 in the regular season, and is playing more minutes (35.1 per game in the postseason versus 33.6 in the regular season). Anticipate Haliburton being motivated to compete offensively with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is the strong favorite to be the leading scorer in the series. Notably, Haliburton has already posted two 30-point games this postseason.
Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115)
Although Turner did not exceed this rebound total in any of Indiana`s six games against the Knicks, he did clear 5.5 rebounds in four of five games against the Cavaliers and averaged 6.5 rebounds per game over the full season. The model identifies this as a buy-low opportunity, projecting Turner to grab seven rebounds in Game 1. He contributed 12 points and 11 rebounds in a close 120-114 loss to the Thunder on December 26. Even in a significant 21-point loss to the Thunder on March 29, where he played only 20 minutes, he still secured five boards.
Indiana will require Turner`s size and presence to counter the Thunder`s height and interior threats like Holmgren. With both the Pacers and Thunder maintaining a high pace throughout the postseason and ranking among the top teams in pace during the regular season, there should be numerous shot attempts and resulting rebounding opportunities for Turner.
Jasper Hawthorne