Wednesday`s NBA schedule features crucial Play-In Tournament games where teams fight to keep their season alive. The Bulls face the Heat, and the Mavericks play the Kings. Key players like Nikola Vucevic and Anthony Davis will be central to their teams` success and popular choices for player prop bets. For example, a double-double for Davis has odds of -300 for `Yes` and +210 for `No`. But is betting on Davis to get a double-double a smart move considering his recent double-double record with Dallas? Let`s explore some NBA prop bets with strong trends that could be good bets.
Statistical models are used to predict the outcome of NBA games. One model, developed by Stephen Oh, has a strong track record of successful NBA picks. Oh analyzed the model`s results to identify player props with the best value for today`s games. Remember that NBA odds can change, so it`s wise to act quickly to get the best value.
Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 Points (-145)
Adebayo`s scoring has increased since Jimmy Butler left the team. He averaged 16.4 points per game when playing with Butler, but that jumped to 20.8 points after Butler`s departure. Play-in games are like playoff games, and Adebayo tends to be more aggressive in these high-stakes situations. He has scored 20 or more points in his last 10 playoff games, even when playing alongside Butler. This suggests he`s likely to score over 19.5 points on Wednesday.
Oh notes that Adebayo has consistently exceeded this points total recently, averaging 24.5 points in his last five games where he went over, with the only exception being an 18-point game against Chicago last week. Against the Bulls in his last six games, Adebayo has averaged 20.5 points, often performing well against Nikola Vucevic, with scores of 23, 23, 24, 23, and 27 points before the 18-point game. This prop bet offers good value.
Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 Assists (-115)
The prediction model projects Sabonis to get 7.1 assists. He has averaged 7.9 assists in his last seven games against Dallas, going over 6.5 assists in six of those games, including the last three. The Mavericks are in the top half of teams allowing assists this season, and they are particularly vulnerable to centers when it comes to assists allowed. Only a few NBA teams allow more assists per game to opposing centers than Dallas. In their last game with starters playing, they allowed eight assists to Toronto`s Jonathan Mogbo, who usually averages only 2.1 assists. Considering Sabonis averages 6.0 assists per season, betting on him to go over 6.5 assists is a valuable pick.
Miami Heat to Beat the Chicago Bulls (+105)
These teams are facing off in a play-in game almost exactly one year after their previous play-in matchup. Like this game, last year`s was also a must-win situation, and Miami won decisively by 21 points. Both teams are coming into this game with good momentum. Chicago has won 6 of their last 9 games, while Miami has won 8 of their last 11 before resting their starters in the last regular season game. Even though this game is in Chicago, the Bulls don`t have a strong home-court advantage. Their home record is only 18-23, which is among the worst home records for teams in the playoffs or play-in, and worse than most teams in the NBA.
Oh states that the model favors Miami to win by nearly 4 points, giving them a 60% chance of winning outright. The best odds for Miami to win are available.
Want more NBA picks for tonight? You`ve seen some of the model`s NBA prop picks for Wednesday. For more projections on every player prop, check out additional resources for expert betting advice before making your NBA picks or player props.
Jasper Hawthorne