The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder are the only teams from the second round heading to a decisive Game 7. Interestingly, the Nuggets have now been involved in two of the three Game 7s seen so far in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. This crucial matchup sees the Nuggets traveling to face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. It`s a particularly exciting contest for those interested in NBA player props, highlighting a clash between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a leading contender for this year`s NBA MVP Award, and Nikola Jokic, a three-time MVP winner, in a win-or-go-home scenario. Both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic contribute significantly across various statistical categories. Given their impact, considering their points, rebounds, assists, or combined stats for Sunday`s prop bets is a popular strategy. These two superstars are also frequently included in Thunder vs. Nuggets same-game parlays.
Insights for this game come from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has historically delivered substantial returns for bettors over the past six seasons. Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), one of the Data Scientists behind the model, has analyzed these simulation results to pinpoint the player props offering the best value for the upcoming game. Note that betting odds are subject to change, so acting quickly might be beneficial.
Nikola Jokic: Over 8.5 assists
Jokic averaged 10.2 assists per game this season, ranking him second in the NBA. While he hasn`t surpassed eight assists in any game during this series, he did record exactly eight assists in the must-win Game 6 for the Nuggets. With Denver again facing elimination, Jokic is expected to play nearly the entire game. Having averaged a triple-double this season, his game extends far beyond scoring; his ability to facilitate is crucial to Denver`s chances of securing a road victory. He hasn`t achieved a triple-double yet in this series, which might provide added motivation for a strong passing performance on Sunday. The model projects Jokic for 9.1 assists in Sunday`s game, indicating value in taking the Over on this line.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Over 30.5 points
Gilgeous-Alexander has exceeded this points total in four of the six games played so far in this series, including his performances in the last two contests. He finished the regular season as the NBA`s leading scorer, averaging 32.7 points per game. In all three home games against the Nuggets this series, he has scored more than 30 points, building on a 40-point performance against Denver at home during the regular season. It is an understatement to say Gilgeous-Alexander is fundamental to the Thunder`s offensive output. Even though every opposing team is aware of this, they have seldom found an effective way to contain the 26-year-old superstar. SGA averaged 33.4 points per game when playing at home this season, and in this critical Game 7, the model anticipates high usage and projects him for a robust 34.1 points on Sunday.
Chet Holmgren: Over 14.5 points
Holmgren is coming off one of his most effective games in the series, scoring a series-high 19 points and adding 11 rebounds in Game 6. He has scored at least 15 points in three out of the last five games of the series, with a 14-point game falling just shy of this line. His average over the series is 14.3 points in 31.2 minutes per game. While Holmgren`s scoring average was slightly lower at home (13.8) than on the road (14.4) this season, this discrepancy is largely tied to the Thunder`s overall dominance at home. Facing the Nuggets in a Game 7 presents a significantly tougher challenge than an average home contest, suggesting Holmgren is highly likely to play more minutes than his regular-season home average of 26. As Data Scientist Stephen Oh observed, “Chet averaged over 30 minutes on the road vs. just 26 at home and is averaging over 31 in this series. When he plays over 30 minutes, the Over is 12-1 this season (7-0 when he plays 31-33 minutes), and the SportsLine model is projecting him for 32 minutes.”
Jasper Hawthorne