The NBA Playoffs continue today with crucial Game 4 matchups in the conference semifinals. As teams battle, focusing on individual player performances through prop bets can offer great value. While stars like Tyrese Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draw attention, sometimes the best opportunities lie with role players getting increased minutes due to matchups or injuries.
SportsLine`s Projection Model, which has a strong track record of success, has analyzed today`s slate and identified player props with favorable odds. Note that odds can change, so check current lines before placing bets.
Michael Porter Jr. – Points: Over 11.5 (-125)
Michael Porter Jr.`s points prop is often listed around 12.5, but some sportsbooks offer it at 11.5. Despite his playoff scoring average (10.7 PPG) being lower than his regular season mark (18.2 PPG), he recently scored 21 points in Game 3. The projection model forecasts him significantly higher, viewing the 11.5 line as an attractive opportunity, particularly considering his strong scoring trends at home.
Pascal Siakam – Points: Over 17.5 (-120)
Pascal Siakam`s points prop is set at 17.5. The three-time All-Star has consistently averaged over 20 points in recent seasons and maintains an efficient 18.3 points per game average in the current postseason (54.1% FG, 40.7% 3PT). Although he scored 18 points in limited time during a blowout Game 3 loss, the model projects him to exceed 20 points in this spot. His expected playing time (likely 35+ minutes), partly due to backup performance, further supports betting the Over.
Andrew Nembhard – Points + Rebounds + Assists: Under 21.5 (-102)
Andrew Nembhard`s combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop is available at 21.5. His regular season average for this metric was 18.3 PRA, and he finished below this total in Friday`s Game 3 loss (10 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists for 18 PRA). The model highlights that Nembhard has gone Under this specific total in four of his last five games when his team has been a home underdog.
Want More NBA Picks for Today?
Additional expert analysis and projections are available:
- Get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- View expert betting advice before making Sunday NBA picks or player props. Bruce Marshall is 123-93-1 (+2061) over his last 214 NBA picks and has a pick for Sunday.
- See who Mike Barner, who is 160-109 (+3254) over his last 269 NBA player props picks, is including in his NBA picks for Sunday.
Jasper Hawthorne