The second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs has brought its share of surprises, including the Indiana Pacers taking a unexpected 2-0 series lead over the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. With road teams finding success recently, the crucial Game 3 in Indiana starting at 7:30 p.m. ET will be pivotal. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder rebounded decisively from their Game 1 loss to the Denver Nuggets with a massive 43-point victory in Game 2, sending the series tied 1-1 back to Denver for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, despite averaging a triple-double in the regular season and first round, has yet to achieve one against the Thunder in this series. Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has consistently scored at least 33 points in both games so far.
Expert analysis, including projections from the SportsLine Projection Model, highlights several player prop betting opportunities for Friday`s slate. Here are some of the top value picks:
Evan Mobley Over 2.5 Assists
The model projects Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley to record 2.9 assists, slightly above the 2.5 line and in line with his season average of 3.1 assists per game. The current odds of -105 offer favorable value compared to typical prop lines. Mobley`s availability is questionable due to an ankle injury that sidelined him for Game 2. However, if he plays (expected given the team`s situation), his movement might be somewhat inhibited, potentially leading him to facilitate more rather than aggressively seek scoring opportunities. While his assist average is lower on the road (2.7) compared to home (3.4) and his road Over rate is only 47.4%, he is arguably “due” for an Over after a recent stretch of Unders, following a period where he frequently exceeded this total.
Andrew Nembhard Under 22.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (PRA)
Indiana`s Andrew Nembhard exceeded this combined total in the first two games of the series, games where the Pacers significantly outperformed expectations. However, Game 3 is expected to see a stronger performance from the Cleveland Cavaliers, who boasted a 64-18 regular-season record. Nembhard has historically struggled to hit this PRA number in his last five home games when the Pacers were considered underdogs, averaging just 16.4 PRA in those contests. Furthermore, he stayed under this total in his final two regular-season matchups against Cleveland and never reached more than 25 PRA in any of their four regular-season meetings.
Christian Braun Over 1.5 Blocks + Steals
Despite Denver`s Christian Braun failing to clear this combined blocks and steals total in his last four games, this prop at +100 odds presents a potential “buy-low” opportunity. His season average stands at 1.6 blocks plus steals, and he went Over this line in four of his first five playoff appearances before this recent dip. After playing only 26 minutes in the blowout Game 2, expect Braun`s playing time to increase significantly in the critical Game 3 at home, closer to the 40 minutes he played in Game 1 and his typical playoff usage (over 37 minutes in seven out of nine games). Additionally, home-court advantage may contribute to a more aggressive defensive approach, with officials potentially allowing slightly more contact that could lead to steals and blocks instead of foul calls early in the game.
Jasper Hawthorne