From mid-October through mid-April, teams have some degree of influence over their potential draft position in June. No team can secure better than a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, but deliberately poor performance, as seen with the Jazz, Hornets, and Wizards, is the path to achieving those maximum odds. Consistently losing requires significant effort.
However, once lottery night arrives, control evaporates. Cooper Flagg`s destiny, like any top prospect`s, is then in the hands of chance – the “lottery gods.” While luck is typically hard to quantify, lottery luck is an exception; it can actually be measured.
Ahead of the 2023 Victor Wembanyama lottery, an analysis was conducted across every NBA lottery in history to assess three key metrics of success or failure: the net number of draft slots gained or lost compared to their pre-lottery position, the frequency of moving up versus moving down, and the average net draft slots gained per lottery appearance. This research revealed a significant disparity in historical luck among teams.
So, if historical luck patterns are predictive, where might Flagg land? The data points strongly to the Philadelphia 76ers. By two of the three metrics, the 76ers are by far the luckiest team in lottery history. Over 40 lotteries, they have gained an astonishing 24 net draft slots thanks to favorable outcomes. The only other team with even half that gain is the Charlotte Hornets, at +13.
Looking solely at the number of times they`ve moved up versus down, Philadelphia also leads. The 76ers have improved their draft position eight times while only dropping once. This is particularly relevant this year because if their pick falls by two spots (from No. 5 to No. 7 or lower), it conveys to the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, history, supported by a 64% mathematical probability, suggests this is unlikely.
The only team historically averaging a better per-lottery performance than the 76ers is the Lakers, but they are not involved in this year`s lottery. Among the 2025 lottery teams, Philadelphia`s average gain of 1.26 slots per appearance is unmatched.
Who ranks second in lottery luck? This depends on the metric. As mentioned, the Hornets have the second-highest total net slot gain (+13). Yet, their lottery fortune hasn`t led to sustained on-court success. This contrasts sharply with the other strong contender for the second-luckiest spot.
The San Antonio Spurs have gained nine net draft slots across eight lottery appearances, averaging a jump of 1.125. They haven`t experienced massive single-lottery jumps, never improving their pick by more than three spots. However, if we subjectively measure which team has *most* benefited from the lottery`s existence, it`s undeniably the Spurs. They`ve won the lottery three times without having the worst record in any of those seasons, landing future superstars David Robinson, Tim Duncan, and Victor Wembanyama.
Considering everything, San Antonio is likely the second-luckiest team in this year`s lottery field, with Charlotte placing third. The Spurs begin the lottery at the No. 8 slot, meaning they would need a luckier jump than they`ve ever had historically just to reach the top four. They also possess Atlanta`s No. 14 pick, providing a second chance, but their overall odds for Flagg are only 6%. The Hornets start at No. 3, holding a share of the best 14% odds for the first pick.
That covers the historically luckiest teams contending for Flagg. What about the unluckiest? Given their recent performance, it may not surprise you that Nico Harrison`s Dallas Mavericks feature here. Entering at No. 11, historical data suggests they`ll stay put, as they have literally *never* moved up in the lottery. With a 1.8% chance at Flagg, history strongly supports the 98.2% likelihood they won`t land him. Another historically unlucky team to note at the bottom?
The Sacramento Kings are in slot No. 13, but their pick is conditional, transferring to the Hawks if it falls outside the top 12. Mathematically, the Kings have a slim 3.8% chance of keeping the pick. Their historical luck offers no encouragement. The Kings have moved up in the lottery only three times but have fallen 11 times, tied with Minnesota (Timberwolves) for the most drops in NBA history.
While the Kings and Mavericks had low odds regardless, what about the historically unlucky teams *with* higher starting positions? With apologies to our nation`s capital, the clear answer is the Washington Wizards. They have lost a net of seven draft slots through the lottery system, the most among non-playoff teams in 2025. While they`ve moved up three times, these picks yielded mixed results (Kwame Brown, John Wall, Otto Porter). They have also dropped nine times, among the highest counts in the league.
Ultimately, does historical luck truly dictate future outcomes? The 2024 lottery suggests not entirely. The Atlanta Hawks entered that drawing having lost three net draft slots historically. Yet, they jumped nine spots, the third-largest leap in lottery history, to secure the No. 1 pick. Their historical net gain is now +6. This demonstrates that while past trends provide context, a single favorable bounce of the ping pong balls can instantaneously transform a team`s lottery narrative. We have 40 years of history for analysis, but the actual outcome is decided in just a few moments on lottery night.
Jasper Hawthorne