MADRID – Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have been the dominant figures at the pinnacle of the WTA rankings for the past three years, frequently exchanging the top spot.
While Sabalenka currently holds a substantial lead of over 3,000 points in the PIF WTA Rankings, she is nonetheless keeping a close watch on the World No. 2, Iga Swiatek.
Following her victory over Anna Blinkova on Friday with a score of 6-3, 6-4, Sabalenka offered a surprisingly detailed commentary on Swiatek`s difficult three-set win against 19-year-old Alexandra Eala the day prior. Swiatek had to mount a comeback after losing the first set and falling behind by a break in the second.
Speaking to reporters about Swiatek`s match, Sabalenka remarked, “Yeah, it was great match. Honestly, I think Iga didn’t really start well, she was missing a lot. But then she played calm and started playing much better, put a lot of pressure on Eala and got the win. Nice comeback for Iga after really tough start.”
Sabalenka and Swiatek, having contested the Mutua Madrid Open final in the previous two years (Sabalenka winning in 2023, Swiatek in 2024), are considered strong favorites to face each other in the final once more this season.
When asked about the possibility of another final clash, Sabalenka responded with a laugh, “It’s kind of like really far, talking about the final. When you make it to the final, we can talk about that. Of course I’d like to play another final against her. It’s always kind of like leg-busters. It’s really cool to play and hopefully really cool to watch for people.”
However, for Swiatek, her participation in Madrid involves more than just vying for the title. Her No. 2 ranking is also under pressure, and she could potentially exit the tournament having lost that position.
Swiatek has been consistently ranked inside the Top 2 every week since March 21, 2022. This impressive streak is now facing a significant threat. Both Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff have mathematical chances to surpass her in the rankings, depending on their respective performances in the tournament:
How Swiatek could potentially drop from No. 2:
If Swiatek loses in Round of 32: Pegula overtakes if she reaches the semifinals, Gauff overtakes if she reaches the final.
If Swiatek loses in Round of 16: Pegula overtakes if she reaches the semifinals, Gauff overtakes if she reaches the final.
If Swiatek loses in Quarterfinals: Pegula overtakes if she reaches the final, Gauff overtakes if she reaches the final.
If Swiatek loses in Semifinals: Pegula overtakes if she reaches the final, Gauff overtakes if she wins the title.
How Swiatek can secure her No. 2 ranking:
If Swiatek reaches the final: Pegula can only surpass her by winning the title; Gauff is eliminated from the possibility of overtaking.
If Swiatek wins the title: She guarantees she will retain her No. 2 ranking.
Should Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff meet in the final, the champion of that match would ascend to the World No. 2 ranking. For Pegula, this would mark her debut appearance inside the Top 2. Gauff has previously held the No. 2 position.
Swiatek, for her part, is maintaining a focused and grounded approach. After her challenging opening win against Eala, she immediately returned to the practice courts for about 30 minutes, working to fine-tune aspects of her movement and timing that had presented issues during the match.
Explaining her decision for the immediate practice, Swiatek stated, “I just felt like there are some stuff I need to work on, and it was best to do it right after, so the body can remember the good movement. It`s good that I had the opportunity to do that.”
She also admitted that adapting to the altitude conditions in Madrid continues to be a challenge.
“It’s never so easy to adjust,” she said. “The first practices were much colder. Yesterday it was hotter, so the feelings were totally different. The balls were flying a little bit out of control from my racquet, so I got the tension a little bit higher in the second set, and then it was better.”
Rather than excessively analyzing the difficulties she faced in the match, Swiatek emphasized that her primary focus was on reinforcing positive playing habits.
“Sometimes when you’re not starting well it takes a little more time to find your game,” she concluded. “But then I did, so I`m glad.”
Jasper Hawthorne 
Dominic Ashworth