Mon. Sep 8th, 2025

2025 NBA Draft Order and Lottery Probabilities

The majority of the 2024-25 NBA Draft order was set on the last day of the regular NBA season. Most non-playoff teams had already secured their lottery positions, and most playoff teams knew their draft spots. However, with several teams still in the Play-In Tournament or playoffs with records worse than some non-playoff teams, some details remained undecided.

After Friday`s games, most of the 2025 draft order is now finalized. It was already known that the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets shared the highest chances for the No. 1 pick and the opportunity to select Cooper Flagg. Now, the rest of the lottery order is largely determined.

Tiebreakers are still pending. In lottery ties, teams split the combined lottery odds for the tied slots. A random draw then decides which team gets the higher pick after the top four are set. For playoff team ties, a random draw simply determines the better pick.

The Play-In Tournament clarified some points. The Bulls and Mavericks will share the lottery odds for the 11th and 12th picks, with a random draw to determine their exact order. The same applies to the 13th and 14th picks, with a slight complication. Atlanta`s original pick goes to San Antonio due to the Dejounte Murray trade. However, Atlanta receives Sacramento`s pick if it`s 13th or later. A random draw will likely decide if that pick is 13th or 14th. If it becomes a top-four pick, the Kings retain it.

Outside the lottery, the Heat are positioned at No. 15 after making the playoffs. Their pick goes to Oklahoma City because it was lottery-protected. Additionally, Memphis reaching the playoffs sends their pick to Washington due to the Marcus Smart trade, which also involved lottery protection. With these details resolved, here is the current NBA Draft order before tiebreaker drawings and the lottery.

Pick number Current pick owner Original pick owner Original owner record Odds for No. 1 pick
1 Utah Jazz Utah Jazz 17-65 14%
2 Washington Wizards Washington Wizards 18-64 14%
3 Charlotte Hornets Charlotte Hornets 19-63 14%
4 New Orleans Pelicans New Orleans Pelicans 21-61 12.5%
5 Philadelphia 76ers/Oklahoma City Thunder* Philadelphia 76ers 24-58 10.5%
6 Brooklyn Nets Brooklyn Nets 26-56 9%
7 Toronto Raptors Toronto Raptors 30-52 7.5%
8 San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs 34-48 6%
9 Houston Rockets Phoenix Suns 36-46 3.8%
10 Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 36-46 3.7%
11 Dallas Mavericks Dallas Mavericks 39-43 1.8%
12 Chicago Bulls Chicago Bulls 39-43 1.7%
13 Atlanta Hawks/Sacramento Kings** Sacramento Kings 40-42 0.8%
14 San Antonio Spurs Atlanta Hawks 40-42 0.7%
15 Oklahoma City Thunder Miami Heat 37-45 n/a
16 Orlando Magic Orlando Magic 41-41 n/a
17 Minnesota Timberwolves Detroit Pistons 44-38 n/a
18 Miami Heat Golden State Warriors 48-34 n/a
19 Washington Wizards Memphis Grizzlies 48-34 n/a
20 Brooklyn Nets Milwaukee Bucks 48-34 n/a
21 Utah Jazz Minnesota Timberwolves 49-33 n/a
22 Atlanta Hawks Los Angeles Lakers 50-32 n/a
23 Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers 50-32 n/a
24 Orlando Magic Denver Nuggets 50-32 n/a
25 Oklahoma City Thunder Los Angeles Clippers 50-32 n/a
26 Brooklyn Nets New York Knicks 51-31 n/a
27 Brooklyn Nets Houston Rockets 52-30 n/a
28 Boston Celtics Boston Celtics 61-21 n/a
29 Phoenix Suns Cleveland Cavaliers 64-18 n/a
30 Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma City Thunder 68-14 n/a

*pick belongs to 76ers if 1-6, Thunder if 7-30

**pick belongs to Kings if 1-12, Hawks if 13-30

NBA Draft Lottery Date

The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled for May 12. This is when the draft positions for top prospects like Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper will be determined. For now, a significant portion of the draft order is already set.

Notably, very few playoff teams control their original draft picks. Beyond the top 12 picks, only the Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic, and Boston Celtics currently hold their originally owned picks. This reflects the current NBA trend of teams going “all-in.” Many of the teams at the end of the first round have traded draft picks for experienced players in recent years and are now experiencing the consequences.

Overall, this postseason`s first round is expected to see over half of the 30 first-round picks potentially changing hands before the draft. Adding to this, the usual draft-day trades mean that most teams outside the lottery no longer use their own picks. This order represents the current situation, but expect significant changes before the final draft.

By Dominic Ashworth

Dominic Ashworth, 41, has made his mark in Leicester's sports media scene with his comprehensive coverage of football and horse racing. Known for his ability to spot emerging talents, Dominic spends countless hours at local sporting events, developing stories that matter to both casual fans and dedicated enthusiasts.

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