The 2025 NBA Draft picture saw dramatic changes recently, fueled by the Dallas Mavericks` surprising win of the No. 1 overall pick and strong performances from numerous prospects at the combine, significantly altering the draft landscape just six weeks out.
Discussion in Chicago focused not only on the Mavericks` improbable lottery win (1.8% odds) and the San Antonio Spurs` options at No. 2, but also the potential wider impact on trade possibilities for established stars like Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo following the surprising lottery results.
Deeper insights will emerge as draft season progresses and teams analyze this highly-anticipated class further. Having spent several days at the combine, this analysis aims to explore key takeaways and their implications for the upcoming draft in June.
Let`s look at some notable winners and losers from the combine.
Winners
Duke Transfer Cedric Coward`s Stock Soars
Washington State transfer Cedric Coward, who committed to Duke, was a major talking point early in the week. Previously identified as a prospect gaining traction, many observers in Chicago felt he successfully elevated himself into potential first-round consideration. His measurements (6-6.5 without shoes, 7-2 wingspan) combined with good shooting and a look of a true NBA wing suggested he might be ready for the professional ranks next season rather than playing in the ACC.
Time will tell.
An educated guess suggests he won`t end up at Duke next season, instead leveraging his strong combine performance to land in the top 20 picks.
Drake Powell and Tahaad Pettiford Impress Scouts
Prospects with decisions to make about staying in the draft or returning to college, such as North Carolina`s Drake Powell and Auburn`s Tahaad Pettiford, performed well at the combine, likely solidifying their positions for guaranteed professional contracts.
Powell`s notable week included impressive physical measurements (6-5.25 without shoes, 7-0 wingspan, 8-7 standing reach) and elite athleticism shown in his vertical leaps (43-inch max, 37.5-inch no-step), which were the highest among all participants.
Pettiford also benefited from his athletic testing, posting a 42-inch max vertical. In scrimmages, he showcased his offensive ability with a 23-point game, demonstrating his capacity to get to scoring spots on the floor.
Both players are significant risers from the week, making their stay-or-go decisions much clearer. Powell has already confirmed his intention to remain in the draft, and a similar announcement from Pettiford would not be surprising.
Egor Demin Silences Doubts with Strong Performance
BYU prospect Egor Demin addressed the primary question mark surrounding his otherwise elite profile – his shooting ability – performing well in drills and having a particularly strong pro day that helped ease concerns about his jumper development. He also measured slightly taller than expected at 6-8.25 without shoes.
Demin, considered the best passer in his class and an exciting prospect, seems to be firmly back in lottery consideration following his performance.
Yaxel Lendeborg Rises on Draft Boards
Yaxel Lendeborg, the UAB star committed to Michigan, significantly boosted his draft prospects with impressive measurements: 6-8.5 without shoes, a striking 7-4 wingspan, and a 9-0.5 standing reach. These physical attributes place him in a draft range potentially too high to pass up.
Lendeborg indicated he is genuinely conflicted about his decision to remain in the draft or return to college, making him one of the key undecided prospects. While returning to school seemed almost certain before the combine, Michigan fans now face an anxious wait.
Beyond his measurements, he performed well in scrimmages, appearing like a capable first-round pick playing as a small-ball center. His performance included a 13-point, 9-rebound game on Wednesday against lengthy opponents. Though quieter Thursday, his overall week was strong. The question remains: was it enough to finalize his decision to stay in the draft?
The odds now lean towards him staying in the draft (estimated 60/40), a reversal from earlier in the week. It seems even he hasn`t made a final decision yet.
Big Men Shine at the Combine
Several prominent centers, including Penn State`s Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Stanford`s Maxime Raynaud, and Qingdao`s Hansen Yang, all measuring around 7 feet, had impactful weeks at the combine.
Niederhauser`s strong showing began with a call-up from the G League Elite Camp, continued with promising play in scrimmages, and featured remarkable athletic testing, including a 37-inch max vertical leap.
Raynaud posted 20 points and 9 rebounds in Wednesday`s scrimmage and performed so well he withdrew from Thursday`s game, leading some to speculate he may have received a draft promise in the first round.
Yang contributed 12 points and two assists on Wednesday, followed by 11 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists on Thursday.
This trio of big men had tremendously successful weeks and are expected to be among the most significant risers on draft boards.
Losers
Duke and Michigan Face Potential Roster Holes
A key lesson for major college programs with high-profile transfers considering the NBA Draft, specifically Duke and Michigan, is the importance of securing commitments *before* the combine or being prepared to explore other options.
Duke will likely need to adjust its plans if Coward remains in the draft, a scenario they seem to be preparing for (with Dame Sarr). Michigan faces a similar situation after UAB standout Yaxel Lendeborg also had an impressive week, moving himself into the top 25 prospects.
Many programs might adopt the strategy employed by Texas Tech with JT Toppin earlier this spring: offering a substantial NIL deal to bypass the draft process entirely. This approach helps reduce roster uncertainty. No team wants to be dealing with late surprises in mid-May, but Duke and Michigan appear to be doing just that.
NBA Lottery System Faces Criticism
The revised lottery system, implemented in 2019 to flatten the odds (giving the three worst teams a 14% chance each), has again produced a controversial result.
Dallas secured the top pick with just a 1.8% probability, while the team finishing with the league`s worst record dropped to No. 5 for the third consecutive lottery.
No team with the worst regular-season record has selected first overall since the new system was introduced, leaving struggling franchises like the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, and Washington Wizards disappointed by their inability to land a potentially franchise-changing No. 1 pick.
Ace Bailey and Jase Richardson`s Measurements Disappoint
Ace Bailey and Jase Richardson were among those negatively impacted at the combine, specifically due to their official measurements falling short of previous listings. Bailey measured 6-7.5 without shoes (compared to a listed 6-10), while Richardson was 6-0.5 and 178.4 pounds (previously listed at 6-3 and 185).
The extent to which these measurements will affect their draft stock is still uncertain. However, consistent buzz from the combine indicated Bailey remains a possibility for the No. 3 pick (potentially Philadelphia), although this is not guaranteed. Richardson`s projected range appears to be settling between picks 15 and 25 for now.
RJ Luis Fails to Make a Strong Impression
Despite a strong season at St. John`s under Rick Pitino, RJ Luis Jr. has struggled to gain significant traction in the transfer portal and didn`t perform strongly at the combine. His combined shooting was 11-of-29 in two scrimmages, and he finished with a notable -41 +/- rating.
Ranked No. 4 in the 247Sports transfer portal rankings, Luis Jr. might benefit significantly from returning to college for another season.
Jasper Hawthorne